abare.gov.au

4 March 2008

Another record for commodity exports

Australia's commodity export earnings are forecast to increase by 30 per cent to a record $189 billion in 2008-09. This and other commodity projections out to 2012-13 are contained in the March quarter issue of Australian Commodities released today by Phillip Glyde, Executive Director, ABARE.

"The growth in export earnings forecast for 2008-09 mainly reflects increased shipments of iron ore, coal, gold, LNG, grains and oilseeds in response to strong demand in overseas markets," Mr Glyde said.

Under an assumption of average seasonal conditions, the value of farm exports is forecast to be $31 billion in 2008-09, an 18 per cent increase on the previous year. Export earnings are forecast to increase for grains and oilseeds, cotton, sugar, wine, beef and veal, lamb and most dairy products.

Mr Glyde noted that if grain growing areas, particularly in southern Australia, receive a good autumn seasonal break, there is a very good chance of a bumper winter grains crops in 2008-09. Given reasonable seasonal conditions, some sheep flock and cattle herd rebuilding is expected to occur in 2008-09.

The total value of Australia's minerals and energy exports is forecast to rise by 33 per cent to a record $153 billion in 2008-09, following a forecast rise of 7 per cent to $115 billion in 2007-08.

In 2008-09, iron ore is forecast to be Australia's largest export commodity (in value terms), followed by metallurgical coal, thermal coal, gold and crude oil. Australia's largest agricultural export commodity (in value terms) is wheat, ranked 10th overall in commodity export earnings.Over the medium term, the value of Australian commodity exports (in 2007-08 dollar terms) is projected to fall to $176 billion in 2012-13.

The March issue of Australian Commodities contains the ABARE papers presented at OUTLOOK 2008, ABARE's annual agriculture and commodity forecasting conference.

The March issue of Australian Commodities also features articles on:

Global integrated assessment model – a new analytical tool for assessing climate change risks and policies
Agricultural trade – the changing environment for trade policy and agricultural prices
Productivity growth in Australian broadacre and dairy industries
Farm financial performance – Australian farm income and drought recovery 2005-06, 2006-07 and 2007-08
Murray Darling Basin – economic implications of water scarcity

For media interviews and comment, please contact Dr Terry Sheales, ABARE Chief Commodity Analyst on 02 6272 2054 mobile 0438 236 749 or email tsheales@abare.gov.au

For free downloads of the March Australian Commodities report, please visit the ABARE website www.abare.gov.au or phone Publications on 02 6272 2010.

For general media enquiries, contact Maree Finnegan, Media Coordinator on
02 6272 2260 or email mfinnegan@abare.gov.au.