“Although winter crop production is forecast to increase in 2009-10, an assumed higher average value of the Australian dollar is expected to lead to lower farm export earnings in the short term,” Dr Sheales said.

The value of farm exports is forecast to fall by 2.5 per cent to $31.1 billion in 2009-10, following a significant rise of 16 per cent to $31.9 billion in 2008-09.

The latest forecast of farm export earnings in 2009-10 is a downward revision from the $32.5 billion released by ABARE in the June issue of Australian commodities. However, at a forecast $31.1 billion, farm export earnings in 2009-10 will still be around 13 per cent higher than the $27.5 billion recorded in 2007-08.

Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2009-10 include barley, chickpeas, lupins, oats, peas, rice, sorghum, raw cotton and sugar. However, the effects are more than offset by forecast lower export earnings for wheat, canola, wine, livestock and livestock products.

Total earnings from Australia’s commodity exports are forecast to fall by 20 per cent to $158 billion in 2009-10, following an estimated rise of 32 per cent to $197 billion in 2008-09.

For energy and minerals, export earnings are forecast to fall by 23 per cent to $123 billion in 2009-10, mainly a result of lower contract prices for bulk commodities, including coal and iron ore. This updated forecast for the export value of mineral resources represents a downward revision of about $1 billion from the forecast in June.

“At a forecast $123 billion, minerals and energy export earnings in 2009-10 will be the second highest on record,” Dr Sheales said.

The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 36 per cent to around $50 billion in 2009-10. For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to decline by 12 per cent to around $74 billion in 2009-10.