The value of Australia’s farm exports is forecast to be around $29 billion in both 2009-10 and 2010-11, before increasing to $32.2 billion (in 2009-10 dollars) in 2014-15.

This and other commodity projections out to 2014-15 are contained in the March issue of Australian Commodities released today by Mr Phillip Glyde, Executive Director, ABARE.

”The projected increase in farm export earnings will be supported by recovering world economic growth and is under the assumption of favourable seasonal conditions in Australia”, Mr Glyde said.

Total earnings from Australian commodity exports are forecast to rise by 15 per cent to $187 billion in 2010-11. This forecast increase mainly reflects an expected rise in mineral resources exports by 19 per cent to $154 billion in 2010-11.

Compared with 2009-10, the value of Australian commodity exports is projected to increase by 30 per cent to $211 billion (in 2009-10 dollars) by 2014-15, with earnings from mineral resources exports reaching $175 billion in real terms.

Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2010-11 include barley, rice, raw cotton, sugar, wine, live cattle and dairy products.

”However, an expected increase in world grain supplies is likely to continue placing downward pressure on prices in the short term”, Mr Glyde said.

Also, herd and flock rebuilding, if seasonal conditions permit, and stronger competition in some of Australia’s major overseas markets are likely to put some constraints on exports.

For energy commodities, export earnings are forecast to rise by around 20 per cent to $66 billion in 2010-11, driven largely by higher forecast prices for oil and coal.

For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to increase by around 18 per cent to $88 billion in 2010-11.

A forecast increase in export volumes and higher expected prices for Australian iron ore are the main reasons for this projected rise in earnings from metals and other minerals, according to Mr Glyde.