A projected increase in farm export earnings over the next few years will be supported by recovering world economic growth and is under the assumption of favourable seasonal conditions in Australia.

The value of Australia’s farm exports is forecast to be around $29 billion in both 2009-10 and 2010-11, before increasing to $32.2 billion (in 2009-10 dollars) in 2014-15, delegates heard at the opening of the ABARE Outlook conference in Canberra today.

Executive Director of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), Phillip Glyde, outlined the situation surrounding Australia’s commodity exports, telling the conference that total earnings are forecast to rise by 15 per cent to $187 billion in 2010-11.

“This forecast increase mainly reflects an expected rise in mineral resources exports by 19 per cent to $154 billion in 2010-11,” Mr Glyde said.

“By 2014-15, the value of Australian commodity exports is projected to increase by 30 per cent to $211 billion in 2009-10 dollars, with earnings from mineral resources exports reaching $175 billion in real terms.”

Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Murilo Portugal, said policy-driven recovery is off to a stronger start than anticipated, but at varying speeds, in major world economies.

“In most advanced economies, the recovery is expected to remain sluggish by past standards, whereas in many emerging and developing economies, particularly in Asia, growth is on a solid footing, with the outlook for exports and industrial production remaining bright,” Mr Portugal said.

“In the near term, policy-makers are facing a difficult task in judging the right timing, pace and sequencing of exit from policy stimulus.”

Managing Director and Global Head of Economics and Research for Westpac Banking Corporation, Bill Evans, also addressed the opening session and said the Australian economic outlook is positive supported by increasing employment and business investment, a surge in dwelling construction, and an expected rise in Australia’s terms of trade.

“While the outlook for the Australian economy is upbeat, the pace of recovery is likely to be more gradual than during the previous cycles mainly as a result of higher levels of household debt,” Mr Evans said.