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| outlook for australia’s commodity sector |
| aggregate commodity export prices |
The index of unit export returns for Australian commodities, in aggregate, is forecast to rise by nearly 20 per cent in 2008-09, following an estimated rise of 4 per cent in 2006-07. For farm commodities, the index of unit export returns is forecast to increase by 1.7 per cent in 2008-09, following a forecast rise of 10 per cent in 2007-08. Although export prices are forecast to average lower in 2007-08 for wheat, wool, sugar and dairy products, the effects are more than offset by forecast higher prices for meat, live animals and cotton. |
| australias commodity export earnings |
| Reflecting assumed relatively strong world economic growth, and hence higher commodity demand and export shipments, the value of Australia’s commodity exports is forecast to be around $189.1 billion in 2008-09, nearly 30 per cent higher than a forecast $145.6 billion in 2007-08. Over the medium term, the value of Australian commodity exports is projected to rise in real terms to $187.2 billion in 2009-10, before gradually easing toward the end of the projection period. By 2012-13, Australian commodity exports are projected to be worth around $176 billion (in 2007-08 dollars), 21 per cent higher than the forecast value in 2007-08. Under the assumption of average seasonal conditions, export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be around $31.4 billion in 2008-09, a rise of 18 per cent from a forecast $26.7 billion in 2007-08. For many agricultural commodities, including most grains and oilseeds, cotton, sugar, wine, beef and veal, lamb and most dairy products, export earnings are forecast to increase in 2008-09. Over the medium term, the value of Australian farm exports is projected to rise in real terms. Australian farm exports are projected to be worth around $35.7 billion (in 2007-08 dollars) in 2012-13, around 34 per cent higher than the forecast value in 2007-08. Export earnings from Australia’s mineral resources sector are forecast to be around $153.4 billion in 2008 09, compared with a forecast $115.1 billion in 2007 08. For energy commodities, export earnings are forecast to increase by 54 per cent to $66.8 billion in 2008 09, driven largely by higher export volumes and forecast strong prices for oil and coal. For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to rise by 21 per cent to $86.7 billion in 2008 09. A forecast increase in export volumes and prices for Australian iron ore is expected to account for the majority of this increase. Over the medium term, export earnings in real terms (2007-08 dollars) from Australia’s mineral resources sector are projected to increase to a peak of $149.9 billion in 2009-10, before declining gradually toward the end of the outlook period. By 2012-13, mineral resources exports are projected to be worth $135.5 billion, 18 per cent higher than the value forecast for 2007-08. For metals and other minerals, export earnings in 2012-13 are projected to be around $75.8 billion, while export earnings for energy resources are projected to be worth $59.6 billion. |
| medium term outlook for unit export returns for australia's commodities a | |||||||||||||||||||
 |
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unit |
2005-06 |
s |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
s |
2008-09 |
f |
2009-10 |
f |
2010-11 |
f |
2011-12 |
f |
2012-13 |
f |
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| farm | index |
86.3 |
90.7 |
100.0 |
101.7 |
102.1 |
103.3 |
103.7 |
103.6 |
||||||||||
| – real | index |
91.3 |
93.2 |
100.0 |
99.0 |
97.0 |
95.7 |
93.7 |
91.4 |
||||||||||
| mineral resources | index |
88.6 |
97.0 |
100.0 |
123.9 |
118.3 |
107.4 |
100.4 |
97.3 |
||||||||||
| – real | index |
93.7 |
99.7 |
100.0 |
120.5 |
112.3 |
99.5 |
90.8 |
85.8 |
||||||||||
| energy minerals | index |
98.8 |
90.1 |
100.0 |
144.1 |
137.6 |
128.4 |
121.0 |
115.3 |
||||||||||
| – real | index |
104.5 |
92.6 |
100.0 |
140.2 |
130.7 |
118.9 |
109.3 |
101.7 |
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| metals and other minerals | index |
81.5 |
101.6 |
100.0 |
110.9 |
105.9 |
94.1 |
87.4 |
85.9 |
||||||||||
| – real | index |
86.2 |
104.4 |
100.0 |
107.9 |
100.6 |
87.1 |
79.0 |
75.7 |
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| total commodities | index |
88.4 |
96.0 |
100.0 |
119.9 |
115.5 |
107.0 |
101.4 |
98.9 |
||||||||||
| – real | index |
93.6 |
98.7 |
100.0 |
116.7 |
109.7 |
99.1 |
91.6 |
87.2 |
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| a Base: 2007-08 = 100. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast. Sources:Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARE. | |||||||||||||||||||
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| download excel data | |||||||||||||||||||
| medium term outlook for australia's commodity sector | ||||||||||||||||||
|
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unit |
2005-06 |
s |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
s |
2008-09 |
f |
2009-10 |
f |
2010-11 |
f |
2011-12 |
f |
2012-13 |
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| commodity exports | ||||||||||||||||||
| exchange rate | US$/A$ |
0.75 |
0.78 |
0.87 |
0.83 |
0.80 |
0.78 |
0.77 |
0.76 |
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| value of exports | ||||||||||||||||||
| farm | A$m |
27 807 |
27 795 |
26 651 |
31 448 |
35 079 |
37 598 |
39 457 |
40 467 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
29 418 |
28 572 |
26 651 |
30 607 |
33 307 |
34 829 |
35 659 |
35 680 |
|||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
| crops | A$m |
13 968 |
12 976 |
11 542 |
16 055 |
18 969 |
20 749 |
22 212 |
23 325 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
14 778 |
13 338 |
11 542 |
15 626 |
18 011 |
19 221 |
20 074 |
20 566 |
|||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
| livestock | A$m |
13 838 |
14 819 |
15 109 |
15 393 |
16 109 |
16 849 |
17 245 |
17 143 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
14 640 |
15 233 |
15 109 |
14 981 |
15 296 |
15 608 |
15 585 |
15 115 |
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|
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| forest and fisheries products | A$m |
3 687 |
3 846 |
3 926 |
4 193 |
4 429 |
4 677 |
5 088 |
5 454 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
3 900 |
3 954 |
3 926 |
4 080 |
4 206 |
4 332 |
4 599 |
4 809 |
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|
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| mineral resources | A$m |
92 438 |
107 928 |
115 065 |
153 448 |
157 882 |
151 490 |
151 878 |
153 676 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
97 793 |
110 944 |
115 065 |
149 342 |
149 909 |
140 332 |
137 259 |
135 497 |
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|
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| energy minerals | A$m |
39 328 |
39 427 |
43 427 |
66 782 |
68 332 |
66 392 |
67 974 |
67 650 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
41 606 |
40 529 |
43 427 |
64 995 |
64 881 |
61 501 |
61 431 |
59 648 |
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|
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| metals and other minerals | A$m |
53 110 |
68 502 |
71 638 |
86 666 |
89 551 |
85 098 |
83 904 |
86 025 |
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| – real a | A$m |
56 186 |
70 415 |
71 638 |
84 347 |
85 028 |
78 830 |
75 828 |
75 849 |
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|
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| total commodities | A$m |
123 931 |
139 570 |
145 642 |
189 090 |
197 390 |
193 765 |
196 423 |
199 598 |
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| – real a | A$m |
131 111 |
143 469 |
145 642 |
184 029 |
187 422 |
179 493 |
177 517 |
175 986 |
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| farm sector | ||||||||||||||||||
| farmers’ terms of trade a | index |
93.6 |
95.7 |
100.0 |
100.9 |
101.4 |
103.2 |
103.2 |
102.4 |
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| gross value of farm prodn b | A$m |
38 430 |
34 649 |
39 530 |
46 650 |
48 263 |
50 531 |
51 953 |
53 011 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
40 657 |
35 617 |
39 530 |
45 402 |
45 825 |
46 809 |
46 952 |
46 740 |
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|
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| crops | A$m |
20 628 |
16 418 |
20 226 |
25 775 |
27 121 |
28 699 |
29 732 |
30 727 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
21 823 |
16 877 |
20 226 |
25 085 |
25 751 |
26 585 |
26 870 |
27 092 |
|||||||||
|
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| livestock | A$m |
17 802 |
18 231 |
19 304 |
20 875 |
21 142 |
21 832 |
22 221 |
22 284 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
18 834 |
18 740 |
19 304 |
20 316 |
20 075 |
20 224 |
20 082 |
19 648 |
|||||||||
|
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| net value of farm production | A$m |
7 291 |
3 406 |
5 135 |
10 309 |
10 941 |
11 917 |
14 490 |
14 293 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
7 714 |
3 501 |
5 135 |
10 034 |
10 389 |
11 039 |
13 095 |
12 603 |
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| volume of farm production a | index |
120.9 |
99.5 |
100.0 |
114.5 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
115.9 |
115.5 |
|||||||||
| – crops | index |
144.9 |
94.2 |
100.0 |
130.6 |
130.1 |
126.5 |
123.6 |
120.8 |
|||||||||
| – livestock | index |
101.9 |
104.4 |
100.0 |
99.6 |
102.5 |
105.8 |
109.5 |
111.9 |
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| minerals and energy sector | ||||||||||||||||||
| volume of mine production a | index |
97.1 |
99.8 |
100.0 |
110.9 |
117.4 |
122.7 |
128.3 |
131.8 |
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| – energy | index |
97.3 |
103.4 |
100.0 |
107.3 |
109.3 |
113.8 |
120.6 |
124.0 |
|||||||||
| – metals and other minerals | index |
97.1 |
97.4 |
100.0 |
114.6 |
128.5 |
134.8 |
138.7 |
142.5 |
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| gross value of mine prodn | A$m |
88 740 |
103 611 |
110 462 |
147 311 |
151 567 |
145 431 |
145 803 |
147 529 |
|||||||||
| – real a | A$m |
93 881 |
106 506 |
110 462 |
143 368 |
143 913 |
134 718 |
131 769 |
130 077 |
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| New capital expenditure | A$m |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|||||||||
|
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| Exploration expenditure | ||||||||||||||||||
| Petroleum | A$m |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|||||||||
| Metallic and other minerals | A$m |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|||||||||
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| Total | A$m |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
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| a In 2007-08 Australian dollars. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see table 21. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast. Note:ABARE revised the method for calculating farm price and production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fishers' ideal index with a reference year of 1997-98 = 100. Sources:Australian Bureau of Statistics; ABARE. | ||||||||||||||||||
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