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Overview
spacer The total area planted to summer crops in 2008-09 is forecast to remain similar to the area planted in the previous year. Despite an improvement in water storage levels, availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for cotton and rice production. Average to above average rainfall in October and November in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has improved yield prospects for grain sorghum production. However, a significant decline in feed grain prices and a reduced area of fallow land available is forecast to result in a fall in the area planted to grain sorghum in 2008-09.

spacer The area planted to rice in 2008-09 is forecast to be around 8000 hectares. This is a significant increase from the estimated 2000 hectares planted last year, but well below historical averages, reflecting the continued limited supply of irrigation water for rice growing.

spacer The area planted to cotton in 2008-09 is forecast to more than double to around 153 500 hectares, reflecting an improvement in water availability, particularly in Queensland. Australian cottonseed and cotton lint production in 2008-09 are forecast to be 398 000 tonnes and 281 500 tonnes respectively, more than double the severely drought affected harvest of 2007-08.

spacer The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 722 000 hectares in 2008-09, 15 per cent below the area planted last year. This reflects a fall in the area of fallow land available relative to the same time last year and significantly lower feed grain prices. Average to above average rainfall received in October and November in key growing regions, combined with a positive seasonal rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology, means the current outlook for grain sorghum yields is favourable.

spacer Untimely November rainfall in all states, except South Australia, has interrupted the harvesting of winter crops and, depending on the stage of crop maturity, will result in varying degrees of quality downgrading. The timing of November rainfall has meant a very disappointing end to the 2008 winter cropping season. Total winter grains production is estimated to be 30.6 million tonnes. Although this is a 36 per cent increase from 2007-08, it is well below earlier forecasts, reflecting a very poor spring in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

spacer Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated at around 20 million tonnes, barley production is estimated to reach 6.4 million tonnes and canola production is estimated at 1.3 million tonnes. Although these production levels are significantly higher than in 2007-08, they are well below mid-year expectations.
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introduction maps
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Rainfall
Rainfall across most of Australia throughout the entire winter grain growing period was variable. Average to above average rainfall was received in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia. However, rainfall across southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia was below to very much below average. Details of rainfall received in the April–October period are provided in table A. Rainfall received over the September–November period is shown in map 1.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest (26 November 2008) seasonal rainfall outlook for the summer period indicates there is a moderate shift in the odds toward above average rainfall over parts of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland. The chances of exceeding average rainfall are 60 to 65 per cent over a small area of north-east New South Wales, extending into south-east Queensland.

Across northern New South Wales and southern Queensland the chance of exceeding average maximum temperatures this summer is average. The chance of exceeding average minimum temperatures over the same area is between 60 and 70 per cent.

A number of organisations provide forecast yields for grains, including wheat and sorghum. The shire scale sorghum forecasting system of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The probability at the beginning of December of exceeding average sorghum yields is greater than 50 per cent in all regions (map 2). In Queensland, the chance of exceeding long-term median yields (map 3) ranges from 50 to 60 per cent, up to 100 per cent. In New South Wales the chance of exceeding average yields ranges from 50 to 60 per cent up to 90 per cent.
MAP 1
MAP 2 and MAP 3



A April – October rainfall in major grain growing regions
 
average a
2006
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
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mm
mm
mm
mm
% of
% of
% of
average
average
average
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Queensland
Central Highlands (35)
209
161
227
215
77
108
103
Maranoa (43)
228
98
199
215
43
87
94
West Darling Downs (42)
237
105
229
215
44
97
91
East Darling Downs (41)
291
145
276
198
50
95
68
Moreton South Coast (40)
453
230
412
351
51
91
77
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New South Wales
North West Plains (W) (52)
239
164
209
187
69
87
78
North West Plains (E) (53)
277
192
244
226
69
88
82
North West Slopes (N) (54)
309
213
277
228
69
90
74
North West Slopes (S) (55)
326
228
318
316
70
98
97
Northern Tablelands (N) (56)
365
255
359
289
70
98
79
Central West Plains (S) (50)
260
98
199
215
38
77
83
Central West Plains (N) (51)
245
146
170
187
60
69
76
Central West Slopes (N) (64)
319
179
289
279
56
91
87
Central West Slopes (S) (65)
333
134
253
278
40
76
83
Central Tablelands (N) (62)
339
255
359
289
75
106
85
Central Tablelands (S) (63)
466
198
386
353
42
83
76
Riverina (W) (75)
221
127
148
133
57
67
60
Riverina (E) (74)
295
141
192
164
48
65
56
South West Slopes (N) (73)
366
160
265
259
44
72
71
South West Slopes (S) (72)
542
251
384
364
46
71
67
Southern Tablelands (GM)(70)
369
232
343
252
63
93
68
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Victoria
North Mallee (76)
201
117
173
130
58
86
65
South Mallee (77)
234
135
194
153
58
83
65
North Wimmera (78)
280
149
218
181
53
78
65
South Wimmera (79)
358
212
318
252
59
89
70
Lower North (80)
281
155
186
154
55
66
55
Upper North (81)
341
184
252
201
54
74
59
Lower North East (82)
545
267
434
362
49
80
66
Upper North East (83)
759
366
551
413
48
73
54
North Central (88)
494
276
362
294
56
73
60
Central Western (89)
420
268
378
293
64
90
70
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South Australia
Upper South East (25B)
310
153
271
232
49
88
75
Murray Mallee (25A)
209
113
167
148
54
80
71
Murray River (24)
225
134
179
169
59
79
75
East Central (23)
454
242
365
337
53
80
74
West Central (22)
330
202
336
281
61
102
85
Lower North (21)
317
142
228
219
45
72
69
Upper North (19)
222
89
128
128
40
58
58
Western (18)
246
129
135
127
52
55
52
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Western Australia
North Coast (8)
324
157
185
280
48
57
86
Central Coast (9)
734
370
547
575
50
75
78
Northern Central (10)
278
187
197
270
67
71
97
South Coast (9A)
754
433
623
620
57
83
82
South Central (10A)
339
219
293
349
65
86
103
South East (12)
158
110
89
107
70
56
68
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Tasmania
Northern (91)
709
568
725
572
80
102
81
Midlands (93)
327
241
272
229
74
83
70
 
a Average from 1913 to 2008.
Summer crop production
The total area planted to summer crops in 2008-09 is forecast to remain similar to the area planted in the previous year. Despite an improvement in water storage levels (figure A), availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue for cotton and rice production. Average to above average rainfall in October and November in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has improved yield prospects for grain sorghum production. However, a significant decline in feed grain prices and a reduced area of fallow land available is forecast to result in a fall in the area planted to grain sorghum in 2008-09.

The area planted to rice is forecast to be around 8000 hectares which is a significant increase from the estimated 2000 hectares planted last year, but well below historical averages, reflecting the continued lack of irrigation water for rice growing. The area planted to cotton in 2008-09 is forecast to more than double to around 153 500 hectares, reflecting an improvement in water availability, particularly in Queensland. Around 126 200 hectares of the area planted to cotton is forecast to be irrigated, with the remaining area dryland cotton. Australian cottonseed and cotton lint production in 2008-09 are forecast to be 398 000 tonnes and 281 500 tonnes, respectively, more than double the severely drought affected harvest of 2007-08.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 722 000 hectares in 2008-09, 15 per cent below the area planted last year, reflecting a fall in the area of fallow land available compared with the same time last year, and a significant decline in feed grain prices. Average to above average rainfall received in October and November in key growing regions, combined with a positive seasonal rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology, means the current outlook for grain sorghum yields is favourable. Assuming above average yields, total grain sorghum production is forecast to reach 2.1 million tonnes in 2008-09.
Winter crop production

Untimely November rainfall in all states, except South Australia, has interrupted the harvesting of the winter crop and, depending on the stage of crop maturity, will result in varying degrees of downgrading of grain quality. The final size of the 2008 winter crop is estimated to be around 30.6 million tonnes (table C), a 36 per cent increase from 2007-08, but well down on mid-year expectations, following a poor spring in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated at around 20 million tonnes in 2008-09, a 53 per cent increase from 2007-08 but well below mid-year expectations. The poor spring also hampered barley production, which is estimated to reach 6.4 million tonnes in 2008-09, around 440 000 tonnes greater than what was produced last season but less than initially forecast. Canola production is estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, around 24 per cent more than 2007-08.

B Summer crop plantings and production – Australia a
 
New South Wales
Queensland
Australia
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spacer
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' 000 ha
Kt
' 000 ha
Kt
' 000 ha
Kt
spacer
1996-97
655
2 774
689
1 485
1 431
4 374
1997-98
617
2 588
640
1 139
1 335
3 823
1998-99
885
3 228
721
1 712
1 741
5 097
1999-00
742
2 882
771
2 031
1 591
5 025
2000-01
825
3 366
816
1 786
1 761
5 286
2001-02
777
3 146
794
1 772
1 633
4 933
2002-03
509
1 582
521
1 199
1 097
2 868
2003-04
436
1 766
708
1 806
1 211
3 679
2004-05
493
1 984
773
1 788
1 340
3 889
2005-06
760
2 765
615
1 512
1 442
4 387
2006-07
332
1 036
520
1 079
912
2 181
2007-08
359
1 593
675
2 162
1 108
3 868
2008-09 previous
380
1 252
669
1 611
1 122
2 957
2008-09 s
371
1 322
667
1 786
1 113
3 207
% change 2007-08
   to 2008-09
-3
6
0
11
-1
8
 

a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans.s ABARE estimate
C Winter crop production – Australia a
 
New South
Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western
Australia
South
Australia
Australia
spacer
Kt
Kt
Kt
Kt
Kt
Kt
spacer
1996-97
11 285
4 599
2 469
11 192
5 458
35 071
1997-98
8 558
3 398
1 637
12 097
5 360
31 116
1998-99
9 718
3 495
2 322
12 232
6 305
34 159
1999-00
11 495
5 139
2 222
13 311
4 751
36 981
2000-01
10 834
6 232
1 340
8 726
7 486
34 696
2001-02
11 171
5 873
1 142
12 050
8 927
39 240
2002-03
3 505
1 955
836
6 812
4 227
17 402
2003-04
10 768
6 945
1 473
16 683
7 450
43 395
2004-05
10 724
4 203
1 383
12 472
5 849
34 711
2005-06
11 867
6 170
1 426
13 922
7 518
40 985
2006-07
3 840
1 788
907
8 253
2 793
17 613
2007-08
3 145
3 893
1 160
8 865
4 911
22 525
2008-09 previous
9 192
2 889
1 500
11 802
4 517
30 932
2008-09 s
9 076
2 774
2 029
11 915
4 273
30 595
% change 2007-08
   to 2008-09
189
-29
75
34
-13
36
 

a State production include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflowerseed. s ABARE estimate.
Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian Crop Reportand special update released 5 November 2008.
GRAPH 1
D Winter crop area – Australia a
 
New South
Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Western
Australia
South
Australia
Australia
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000 ha
000 ha
000 ha
000 ha
000 ha
000 ha
spacer
1996-97
4 676
2 331
1 225
6 793
3 048
18 102
1997-98
4 543
2 315
1 213
7 141
3 047
18 260
1998-99
4 927
2 454
1 420
7 419
3 376
19 582
1999-00
4 955
2 670
1 337
7 464
3 342
19 763
2000-01
5 398
2 706
1 126
7 390
3 667
20 280
2001-02
5 309
2 684
788
7 173
3 866
19 817
2002-03
4 782
2 928
774
7 174
3 965
19 623
2003-04
6 070
3 126
1 067
7 689
4 034
21 982
2004-05
6 456
3 131
878
9 112
4 718
22 444
2005-06
5 556
2 907
967
7 390
3 882
20 728
2006-07
5 603
3 041
792
6 471
4 141
20 117
2007-08
6 115
3 212
748
6 255
4 073
20 431
2008-09 previous
5 982
3 225
1 203
7 401
4 000
21 824
2008-09 s
5 955
3 200
1 203
7 408
3 988
21 767
% change 2007-08
   to 2008-09
–3
0
61
18
–2
7
 

a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpeas, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed and safflower. s ABARE estimate.
Note: Previous refers to the numbers published in the previous issue of the Australian Crop Reportand special update released 5 November 2008.