Australian crop report – 15 September 2009

Queensland

• Most of Queensland’s cropping regions recorded below to very much below average winter rainfall. August was particularly dry, receiving very much below average rainfall and unseasonably high temperatures. This resulted in a further depletion of subsoil moisture levels for nearly all cropping regions, particularly in central and south-west Queensland. Conditions in south-east Queensland are slightly better, reflecting a better start to the season.
• Earlier planted crops are in a better position than late planted crops as they were able to take advantage of stored subsoil moisture. Late planted crops have suffered the full effect of no in-crop rainfall, combined with heat wave conditions in late August. This resulted in poor crop establishment and crop failure in some areas. Widespread rainfall in the first week of September arrived just in time for many crops in southern Queensland. However, further spring rainfall will be critical to secure yield potential.
• The area sown to winter crops in Queensland is estimated to have increased by 12 per cent in 2009-10, to 1.3 million hectares, which is the largest area planted since the late 1990s. However, widespread below to very much below average winter rainfall has placed significant downward pressure on yield potential. Total winter crop production is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, which is around 23 per cent less than the previous season’s harvest.
• The area planted to wheat in Queensland is estimated to have been 1.1 million hectares, a 10 per cent increase from 2008-09. Wheat production is forecast at slightly more than
  1.4 million tonnes in 2009-10, which is a 25 per cent fall in production when compared with the previous season, reflecting the lack of winter rainfall combined with above average temperatures.
• Although the area planted to barley is estimated to have remained unchanged in 2009-10 at around 100 000 hectares, a forecast decline in yields is likely to result in a 29 per cent drop in production. Barley yields in Queensland are forecast at 1.40 tonnes per hectare in 2009-10, compared with 1.97 tonnes per hectare in 2008-09.
• Chickpea production is forecast at 133 000 tonnes in 2009-10, which is a 16 per cent increase from 2008-09. Despite the dry conditions, chickpeas have performed well this season as most were deep planted to tap into stored soil moisture. Total area planted to chickpeas in 2009-10 is estimated at 124 000 hectares, an increase of around 51 per cent from the previous season.
• At this early stage in the season, the area planted to grain sorghum in Queensland is forecast to decline by around 8 per cent in 2009-10, reflecting below to very much below average winter rainfall. However, additional plantings are possible in 2009-10, if higher than currently expected rainfall is received between now and the end of the planting window. Assuming average yields, grain sorghum production in 2009-10 is forecast at just less than 1.2 million tonnes.
• The area planted to cotton in Queensland in 2009-10 is forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2009-10, to 85 000 hectares. Compared with the same time in 2008, supplies of irrigation water are abundant in the Emerald region, improved in the St George and Dirranbandi regions, and largely unchanged in the Darling Downs region. Assuming a return to average yields from the above average yields of 2008-09, cotton lint and cottonseed production in 2009-10 are forecast to be 155 000 tonnes and 219 000 tonnes, respectively, which is an increase in both cases of 2 per cent.

Winter crop forecasts, 2009-10, Queensland
	area		yield	a	production		production change from 2008-09
	`000 ha		t/ha		kt		%
Wheat	1 100		1.27		1 402		-25
Barley	100		1.40		140		-29
a Yields are based on area planted.

Summer crop forecast, 2009-10, Queensland
	area		yield	a	production		area change from 2008-09
	`000 ha		t/ha		kt		%
Sorghum	460		2.60		1 195		-8
Sunflowers	20		0.97		19		-25
Cottonseed	85		2.57		219		12
Cotton lint	85		1.82		155		12
a Yields are based on area planted.