Australian crop report – 15 September 2009

Victoria

• The major winter cropping areas of Victoria received average rainfall throughout the winter months. Winter crops are in a good position leading into the critical spring period. However, further rainfall in spring will be crucial for crops to reach their current yield potential.
• Yields in the Mallee are expected to return closer to the historical average, with the majority of this region receiving average rainfall throughout June and July, but below average rainfall in August. Yields in the north-east Mallee are likely to be more variable depending on the soil type, with crops on lighter soils currently looking better than those on heavier soils.
• Winter crops in the Wimmera and Western District received above average rainfall throughout July and August. Crops in these regions are currently well placed and if rainfall remains favourable there is potential for above average yields.
• The area sown to winter crops in Victoria is estimated to have fallen by 1 per cent in 2009-10, to around 3 million hectares. Assuming an improvement in yields from the previous season, total winter crop production in 2009-10 is forecast to be 5.5 million tonnes, which is an 80 per cent increase from the drought affected harvest in 2008-09.
• The area planted to wheat in 2009-10, is estimated to have declined by 2 per cent to
  1.6 million hectares. Wheat yields are forecast to improve significantly from last season’s drought affected 0.94 tonnes per hectare, to 1.77 tonnes per hectare in 2009-10. Wheat production is forecast to increase to 2.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, which is an increase of 1.3 million tonnes compared with the previous season.
• Barley production is forecast to increase by around 92 per cent in 2009-10, to 1.7 million tonnes. The increase in production is the result of improved growing conditions so far in 2009-10, compared with the 2008-09 growing season. The area planted to barley is estimated to have fallen slightly to 940 000 hectares.
• The area planted to canola in 2009-10 is estimated to have increased by 18 per cent to around 220 000 hectares. Reflecting the current good position of crops throughout Victoria, production is forecast to be a record 400 000 tonnes.

Winter crop forecasts, 2009-10, Victoria
	area		yield	a	production		production change from 2008-09
	`000 ha		t/ha		kt		%
Wheat	1 550		1.77		2 749		85
Barley	940		1.77		1 666		92
Canola	219		1.83		400		59
a Yields are based on area planted.