overview The majority of winter cropping areas in southern Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and central Queensland had an excellent start to the 2007-08 winter cropping season. However, dry conditions over the remainder of the growing period in most major cropping areas of northern Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria means that winter crop production will be significantly lower than was expected around the middle of the year. Total winter grains production is estimated to be almost 22 million tonnes. Although this is a 38 per cent increase from 2006-07, it is well below the five year average of around 35 million tonnes. Production of the major winter grains is estimated at around 12.7 million tonnes for wheat, 5.5 million tonnes for barley and 931 000 tonnes for canola. Although these levels are significantly higher than production in 2006-07, they are well below average. Despite a significant increase in the area sown to winter grains, extremely poor seasonal conditions mean that New South Wales is the only state where production is estimated to be lower than in the 2006-07 drought. Total summer crop area in 2007-08 is forecast to increase by 37 per cent to more than 1 million hectares. Average to above average rainfall in October and November in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has prompted a large area of grain sorghum to be planted. However, lack of availability of irrigation water is forecast to severely constrain the area planted to cotton and rice in 2007-08. The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2007-08 means the area planted to rice is estimated to be only 2000 hectares — 88 per cent below the area planted in 2006-07 and the smallest area planted since the rice industry began in the early 1920s. The area sown to cotton is forecast to decline by 61 per cent to around 56 000 hectares in 2007-08, the smallest area sown in thirty years. The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 795 000 hectares in 2007-08, 74 per cent greater than the area sown last year, reflecting average to above average rainfall received in October–November in key growing regions. Assuming average yields, total grain sorghum production is forecast to reach just over 2 million tonnes in 2007-08, more than double production last season. rainfall Rainfall across most of Australia throughout the entire winter grain growing period was below the long term average. Details of rainfall received in the April–October period are provided in table A. Rainfall received over the September–November period is shown in map 1. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology in its latest seasonal rainfall outlook (22 November 2007) for the summer period indicates that there is a moderate to strong shift in the odds toward above average rainfall over eastern New South Wales and south east Queensland. The chance of exceeding average rainfall is 60–70 per cent in a large area extending from south east Queensland across both northern inland and eastern New South Wales. [click here for map.] There is a 60–70 per cent probability of cooler daytime temperatures for summer (December–February) over southern Queensland and north eastern New South Wales, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. [click here for map] A april–october rainfall in major grain growing regions average a 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 mm mm mm mm % of % of % of         average average average Queensland       Central Highlands (35) 209 277 277 227 132 132 108 Maranoa (43) 228 286 98 199 125 43 87 West Darling Downs (42) 237 294 105 229 124 44 96 East Darling Downs (41) 292 280 145 276 96 50 94 Moreton South Coast (40) 454 425 230 412 94 51 91 New South Wales North West Plains (W) (52) 239 315 164 209 132 69 87 North West Plains (E) (53) 278 355 192 244 128 69 88 North West Slopes (N) (54) 310 342 213 277 110 69 89 North West Slopes (S) (55) 326 379 228 318 116 70 98 Northern Tablelands (N) (56) 366 350 255 359 96 70 98 Central West Plains (S) (50) 261 300 138 187 115 53 72 Central West Plains (N) (51) 245 301 146 170 123 60 69 Central West Slopes (N) (64) 319 358 179 289 112 56 90 Central West Slopes (S) (65) 334 358 179 289 107 54 87 Central Tablelands (N) (62) 339 371 181 379 109 53 112 Central Tablelands (S) (63) 467 371 181 379 79 39 81 Riverina (W) (75) 222 273 127 148 123 57 67 Riverina (E) (74) 296 338 141 192 114 48 65 South West Slopes (N) (73) 367 434 160 265 118 44 72 South West Slopes (S) (72) 544 593 251 384 109 46 71 Southern Tablelands (GM)(70) 370 402 232 343 109 63 93 Victoria North Mallee (76) 202 242 117 173 120 58 86 South Mallee (77) 235 250 135 194 106 57 82 North Wimmera (78) 281 269 149 218 96 53 78 South Wimmera (79) 359 341 212 318 95 59 89 Lower North (80) 282 269 155 186 95 55 66 Upper North (81) 343 347 184 252 101 54 74 Lower North East (82) 547 667 267 434 122 49 79 Upper North East (83) 762 686 366 551 90 48 72 North Central (88) 496 436 276 362 88 56 73 Central Western (89) 422 351 268 378 83 64 90 South Australia Upper South East (25B) 310 306 153 271 99 49 87 Murray Mallee (25A) 210 251 113 167 120 54 80 Murray River (24) 226 293 134 179 130 59 79 East Central (23) 455 446 242 365 98 53 80 West Central (22) 331 346 202 336 105 61 102 Lower North (21) 318 321 142 228 101 45 72 Upper North (19) 223 229 89 128 103 40 57 Western (18) 247 204 129 135 82 52 55 Western Australia North Coast (8) 324 328 157 185 101 48 57 Central Coast (9) 736 666 370 547 91 50 74 Northern Central (10) 278 287 187 197 103 67 71 South Coast (9A) 755 726 433 623 96 57 82 South Central (10A) 339 389 219 293 115 65 86 South East (12) 159 159 110 89 100 69 56 Tasmania Northern (91) 710 878 568 725 124 80 102 Midlands (93) 328 458 241 272 140 74 83 a Average from 1913 to 2007. summer crop production Total summer crop area in 2007-08 is forecast to increase by 37 per cent to more than 1 million hectares (table B). Average to above average rainfall in October and November in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales has prompted planting of a large area to grain sorghum. However, lack of availability of irrigation water (table C) is forecast to severely constrain the area planted to cotton and rice in 2007-08. The lack of irrigation water for rice growing in 2007-08 means that the area planted to rice is estimated to be only 2000 hectares — 88 per cent below the area planted in 2006-07 and the smallest area planted since the rice industry began in the early 1920s. The area sown to cotton is forecast to decline by 61 per cent to around 56 000 hectares in 2007-08, the smallest area sown in thirty years. The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 795 000 hectares in 2007-08, 74 per cent more than area sown last year, reflecting average to above average rainfall received in October–November in key growing regions. The latest seasonal rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology is quite positive for grain sorghum production, with above average rainfall and cooler daytime temperatures forecast for the major grain sorghum growing regions. Assuming average yields, total grain sorghum production is forecast to reach just over 2 million tonnes in 2007-08, more than double the level produced last season. B summer crop plantings and production – australia a new south wales queensland australia ‘ 000 ha Mt ‘ 000 ha Mt ‘ 000 ha Mt 1994-95 527 2.25 727 1.31 1 317 3.63 1995-96 576 2.3 802 1.58 1 466 3.98 1996-97 655 2.78 689 1.49 1 431 4.37 1997-98 617 2.6 640 1.14 1 335 3.82 1998-99 885 3.24 721 1.71 1 741 5.1 1999-2000 742 2.9 770 2.03 1 589 5.03 2000-01 827 3.38 816 1.79 1 761 5.29 2001-02 777 3.15 794 1.77 1 639 5.02 2002-03 509 1.58 521 1.2 1 096 2.87 2003-04 436 1.77 708 1.81 1211 3.68 2004-05 496 2 773 1.79 1 340 3.89 2005-06 s 752 2.74 623 1.56 1 455 4.42 2006-07 s 318 0.99 374 0.8 761 1.89 2007-08 f 346 1.09 622 1.49 1 042 2.69 % change 9 10 66 86 37 42 a State production includes sorghum, rice, cottonseed, maize and sunflowers. Australian production also includes soybeans, peanuts, mung beans and navy beans. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast. The Queensland Department of Primary Industries’ Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU) has mapped long term median grain sorghum yields (map 2). In map 2, soil moisture conditions, rainfall and the seasonal outlook have been combined to estimate the probability of exceeding average yields. This information provides background to the development of the summer crop forecasts. The outlook at the beginning of December (map 3) reveals that the probability of yields exceeding the long term median across most of the grain sorghum growing regions of Queensland and northern New South Wales is X– X per cent (coloured X and X), although there are some areas (coloured X) that have a lower chance of exceeding median yields. C water storage and availability capacity  november 2006  november 2007 GL % of capacity % of capacity southern QLD Beardmore 82 20 8 Fairbairn 1 301 11 15 Glenlyon 254 27 17 Leslie 106 12 9 northern NSW Copeton 1 362 22 13 Keepit 426 10 15 Pindari 312 60 31 southern NSW and VIC Blowering 1 631 29 31 Burrendong 1 188 19 14 Burrinjuck 1 026 30 38 Dartmouth 3 906 41 17 Hume 3 038 10 28 Menindee Lakes 1 731 11 1 Wyangala 1 220 14 15 winter crop production The majority of winter cropping areas in southern Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and central Queensland had an excellent start to the 2007-08 winter cropping season. However, dry conditions over the remainder of the growing period in most major cropping areas of northern Western Australia, South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria meant that winter crop production was significantly lower than expectations in the middle of the year. Total winter grains production is estimated at nearly 22 million tonnes (table D). Although this is a 38 per cent increase from 2006-07, it is still well below the five year average of around 35 million tonnes. For 2007-08. production of wheat is estimated at around 12.7 million tonnes, a 29 per cent increase from 2006-07 but 41 per cent below the five year average. Barley production in 2007-08 is estimated to reach 5.5 million tonnes, 49 per cent more than production in 2006-07 but 30 per cent below the five year average. Canola production is estimated at 931 000 tonnes, an 82 per cent increase from the previous season but well below average. Despite a significant increase in the area sown, New South Wales is the only state where production of winter grains is estimated to be lower than in 2006-07, as a result of the extremely poor seasonal conditions. D winter crop production – Australia  a new south wales victoria queensland western australia south australia australia Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt Mt 1994-95 1.47 1.8 0.31 7.91 2.98 14.7 1995-96 6.74 4.35 0.74 10.22 5.16 27.79 1996-97 11.27 4.55 2.59 11.32 5.36 35.85 1997-98 8.29 3.21 1.63 12.06 5.22 31.12 1998-99 9.38 3.32 2.31 12.19 6.16 34.1 1999-2000 11.1 4.89 2.22 13.27 4.64 36.98 2000-01 10.5 5.91 1.34 8.7 7.33 34.7 2001-02 10.83 5.57 1.14 12.01 8.75 39.27 2002-03 3.37 1.84 0.83 6.79 4.15 17.4 2003-04 10.46 6.64 1.47 16.61 7.29 43.4 2004-05 10.42 3.99 1.38 12.93 5.26 34.71 2005-06 s 11.29 5.88 1.46 14.43 7.39 41.24 2006-07 s 3.06 1.36 0.84 7.54 2.54 15.71 2007-08 s 2.78 3.70 1.16 8.95 4.51 21.62 % change –8 173 39 18 77 38 a State areas include wheat, barley, oats, canola, lupins, field peas, chickpea, faba beans and lentils. Australian totals also include triticale, linseed, safflower and vetch. s ABARE estimate. f ABARE forecast.